Dept. Economic Analysis Research Seminars Dear all,   The following  virtual seminars will take place next week. Department of Economic Analysis & ICAE Research Seminars: WEDNESDAY, May 5th, 2021, 13:00 h Alejandro Buesa (BdE, PhD candidate UCM) Title:  Risky mortgages, credit shocks and cross-border spillovers Abstract: This paper describes a novel methodology of measuring risky and conservative mortgage credit using household survey data for 18 European countries and the United Kingdom. In addition, we construct time series for both types of credit and embed them into a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model, so as to study how shocks to both variables affect domestic output and propagate across countries through cross-border banking exposures. The results show that a decrease in risky credit can have long-lasting positive effects on GDP, both in the originating country and its most exposed peers, while a fall in conservative credit is detrimental. In some geographies, negative shocks to both types of credit reduce output, a feature linked to the lower relevance of homeownership which implies that mortgage credit plays a less prominent role in the domestic economy.   You can join both  seminars through Google Hangout Meets at the following link:   JOIN WEBINAR_   @ucm accounts are granted immediate access to the webinar. External accounts require explicit approval by the moderators. You can find the recording of the talk  as well as previous sessions, papers, and the schedule of upcoming seminars at the seminar’s webpage Hope to see you all there. Best, Jimenez-Martin, Juan-Ángel  Rodríguez Álvarez, Carmelo  Rodríguez Hernández, Juan Gabriel Sartarelli, Marcello